By Henry Kinyua
If coffee auctions were football matches, Sale 18 at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange yesterday would have ended in a dramatic 0–0 draw, plenty of movement on the field, but very few goals on the scoreboard.
The session recorded a provisional traded volume of 44,091 bags, equivalent to 2,687,708 kilograms, with a gross provisional value of approximately USD 16.98 million (2.2 billion) and an average price of USD 316 per 50-kg bag (Ksh 125 per Kilogram of cherries). Premium quality remained resilient, with top AA lots trading above USD 400 and the highest reaching around USD 429 per bag, reinforcing continued buyer interest in certified and high-grade Kenyan coffee.
However, beneath those headline numbers lies a very different market reality. Only 394 bags, equivalent to 24,133 kilograms, were actually confirmed on the auction clock, representing roughly 1% of the total volume presented. These confirmed lots were valued at approximately USD 159,308, achieving a slightly stronger average price of USD 330 per bag ( Ksh 125 per Kg of cherry). The unusually low confirmation rate was largely driven by farmers’ and cooperatives’ reserve prices not being met, leading sellers to withhold confirmation rather than accept bids they considered too low. In effect, yesterday’s auction primarily served as a price discovery exercise rather than a finalized trade outcome.
The remaining unconfirmed lots will now undergo negotiations today, meaning the real commercial outcome of Sale 18, including final volumes traded and actual market prices, will only become clear once these discussions conclude. Such situations often emerge when there is a mismatch between farmer price expectations and buyer sentiment, particularly in periods when international coffee futures have softened, and exporters are cautious about committing to higher purchase prices.
So while the auction hammer fell yesterday, the real business of coffee trading is only just beginning. In Nairobi’s coffee market, it seems, sometimes the auction is merely the opening ceremony, and the actual game kicks off the next day.
